By Jeff Faraudo
#WCChoops columnist | ARCHIVES
 
Ken Pomeroy knows how some people — maybe even some coaches — might react to the first results of the algorithm he devised for the West Coast Conference to seed teams into its tournament in Las Vegas next month. His reaction is much the same.
 
“I’m not comfortable with it because it looks weird,” said Pomeroy, a well-respected college basketball statistical analyst. “Once you start breaking it down, it makes sense.”
 
The WCC sought out Pomeroy to create a means of appropriately seeding teams after a regular-season schedule that has been tugged and torn by the COVID-19 pandemic. Heading into play Thursday, WCC teams have played anywhere from five to 11 conference games, a disparity that would render impractical the process of seeding teams by simple winning percentage.
 
Pomeroy created a formula that provides an “adjusted winning percentage.” It takes into account strength of schedule and road vs. home — all within conference play only — but does not factor in the offensive or defensive efficiency ratings included in his popular KenPom.com rankings. Margin of victory is not part of the equation.
 
WCC Commissioner Gloria Nevarez said her office initially worked to achieve the status quo, meaning it targeted finding ways to complete the original uneven 16-game schedule. When postponements made it clear that wouldn’t happen, the hope was to make sure every team played every other team at least once.
 
That plan also went out the window, at which point Nevarez said, “We thought we’ve got to put some weight in there for the disparity. Some teams had only played the top of the conference, some only played the bottom.”
 
And that’s at the root of what Pomeroy says looks a little weird in the first of five reports he will provide the WCC by the close of the regular season, a week from Sunday.
 
Check out the WCC standings and you will see Saint Mary’s resides in eighth place with a 2-4 conference record. Santa Clara was 3-2 and in fourth place (prior to the Broncos’ loss to Loyola Marymount on Tuesday).
 
But according to Pomeroy’s formula, the Gaels would be seeded fourth and Santa Clara fifth.
 
The reason: Strength of schedule. Saint Mary’s has played one game each against Gonzaga, BYU and Pepperdine, which occupy the top three spots in the conference standings. Santa Clara has played none of those teams.
 
“If Saint Mary’s played Santa Clara’s schedule, what would their record be?” Pomeroy said. “If you took those top-3 losses away from Saint Mary’s, you could imagine them being 3-2 if they played Santa Clara’s schedule.”
 
Pomeroy said the strength-of-schedule component has enough weight that even if Saint Mary’s loses at No. 1-ranked Gonzaga on Thursday and Santa Clara beats ninth-place San Diego at home, the Gaels will retain their edge on the Broncos, according to the adjusting winning percentage. At least for now.
 
The other intriguing result in the first rankings is the narrow margin between No. 2 BYU and No. 3 Pepperdine. “They played the exact same schedule with the exact same results,” Pomeroy said. “The only difference is BYU has played one more road game. That’s why they’re ahead.”
 
Here’s how men’s teams would be seeded (through games of Feb. 14), using Pomeroy’s formula vs. how they rank strictly by raw winning percentage:
 
2021 MEN’S SEEDING
(Based on Adj. Winning Pct)

1. Gonzaga	11-0	0.978
2. BYU	6-3	0.789
3. Pepperdine	6-3	0.786
4. Saint Mary’s	2-4	0.517
5. Santa Clara	3-2	0.498
6. Pacific	3-5	0.481
7. LMU	4-3	0.423
8. San Francisco	4-6	0.384
9. San Diego	1-4	0.137
10. Portland	0-10	0.008

* Through games of Feb. 14
 
TRADITIONAL MEN’S SEEDING
(Based on Win-Loss Pct)

1. Gonzaga	11-0	1.000
2. BYU	6-3	.667
2. Pepperdine	6-3	.667
4. Santa Clara	3-2	.600
5. LMU	4-3	.571
6. San Francisco	4-6	.400
7. Pacific	3-5	.375
8. Saint Mary’s	2-4	.333
9. San Diego	1-4	.200
10. Portland	0-10	.000

* Through games of Feb. 14
 
Because there is far less disparity in the number of games the women’s teams have played — ranging from just 11 to 15 — the adjusted winning percentage is not much different than the actual winning percentage. The decision was made to use Pomeroy’s algorithm anyway, Nevarez said, because “we don’t know what we don’t know” regarding what scheduling changes could unfold over the final two weeks.
 
Here’s a comparison between how women’s teams would be seeded (through games of Feb. 15) using the two systems: 
 
2021 WOMEN’S SEEDING
(Based on Adj. Winning Pct)

1. Gonzaga	13-0	0.964
2. BYU	10-2	0.816
3. Santa Clara	8-6	0.608
4. San Diego	8-3	0.573
5. Portland	7-6	0.534
6. San Francisco	8-7	0.497
7. Pacific	5-9	0.410
8. LMU	4-9	0.276
9. Saint Mary’s	3-12	0.225
10. Pepperdine	1-13	0.096

* Through games of Feb. 15
 
TRADITIONAL WOMEN’S SEEDING
(Based on Win-Loss Pct)

1. Gonzaga	13-0	1.000
2. BYU	10-2	0.833
3. San Diego	8-3	0.727
4. Santa Clara	8-6	0.571
5. Portland	7-6	0.538
6. San Francisco	8-7	0.533
7. Pacific	5-9	0.357
8. LMU	4-9	0.308
9. Saint Mary’s	3-12	0.200
10. Pepperdine	1-13	0.071

* Through games of Feb. 15
 
Nevarez credits Loyola Marymount athletic director Craig Pintens with suggesting they consult Pomeroy after the conference realized it could not utilize the NCAA’s NET rankings because they incorporate non-conference results. 
 
“I like it a lot,” Nevarez said of the approach, adding that there has been some preliminary discussion about whether this system makes sense going forward for as long as the conference uses an unbalanced schedule for the men.
 
Pomeroy said he had fun creating the formula. “It was pretty cool,” he said, before adding a friendly jab at the NCAA. “It’s kind of funny how the NCAA took 30 years to move away from the RPI and the WCC implements this change in a few days.”
 
LAST WEEK’S BIG THING: Three WCC men’s teams that had not played since January due to COVID-19 issues finally were able to take the court on Saturday. Among them, only Loyola Marymount was able to overcome the layoff and claim victory in its return, beating Pacific 80-76 after a 21-day pause.
 
THIS WEEK’S BIG THING: The BYU women (14-3, 10-2) host No. 16 Gonzaga (18-2, 13-0) in a Thursday night duel of the WCC’s two top teams. The Zags beat the Cougars 63-56 behind 18 points from Jill Townsend on Feb. 2 at Spokane. A win by Gonzaga would clinch no worse than a tie for the regular-season title.
 
GREAT SCOTT: Senior forward Eli Scott seems bent on finishing his Loyola Marymount career with a flourish. On Tuesday night, he scored a career-high 37 points, including the go-ahead shot with 14 seconds left, in the Lions’ 76-73 victory at Santa Clara. 
 
His outburst matches the 37 points scored by Pepperdine’s Kessler Edwards against Pacific on Jan. 21, most by a WCC player this season. 
 
Scott, who last season recorded the only triple-double in program history, has led LMU to eight victories in their past 11 games. Over the past eight, he is spending an average of nearly 37 minutes on the floor and delivering 21.9 points per game.