As Santa Clara prepares to face 12th-ranked Gonzaga in a battle for first place in the West Coast Conference on Saturday night at the Leavey Center, Broncos head coach Herb Sendek declines to wander into the weeds. He steers clear of pondering the big picture or projecting where his team stands in the chase for an NCAA Tournament berth.
What matters, he maintains, is what happens when the Broncos (22-5, 13-1) tip off against the Zags (24-2, 12-1) at 7:30 p.m.
“We’re sticking to our guns and staying in the here and now and preparing for this game, like we always do,” Sendek said. “Our guys have done a good job of staying in the moment and trying to make each game count as best they can.”
This one counts for a lot. There certainly are consequential matchups over the next two weeks as regular-season conference play reaches a crescendo. That includes a showdown in Moraga between Saint Mary’s (22-4, 11-2) and Gonzaga on Feb. 28, the final day of the regular season. The Credit Union 1 West Coast Conference Basketball Championship, set for March 5-10 in Las Vegas, will determine the league’s automatic NCAA entry but also will influence the chances of others.
All of that will sort out whether 1) Santa Clara can land a spot in the NCAA field for the first time in 30 years and 2) whether the West Coast Conference will be represented by three programs — Santa Clara, Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s — in the Big Dance.
There are powerful arguments to be made in favor of both. Both the experts and the statistical metrics provide an encouraging landscape.
Joe Lunardi, ESPN’s well-respected bracketologist, currently has all three schools in his projected field of 68. Gonzaga, which has played in every NCAA Tournament since 1999, gets a No. 4 seed in his bracket. Saint Mary’s, aiming for its 12th bid in 22 years, is at No. 9. Santa Clara projects as a No. 11 seed.
Andy Katz, in his most recent bracket prediction for the NCAA’s website, mirrors Lunardi’s picks almost exactly, with Gonzaga as a 4 seed, Saint Mary’s at 10 and Santa Clara at 11. CBS Sports also has Gonzaga in the 4 slot, but projects Santa Clara and Saint Mary’s both as No. 11 seeds.
Other metrics also paint an optimistic picture. Here are a few of them:
— The NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool) has Gonzaga at No. 6 nationally, Saint Mary’s at No. 28 at Santa Clara at No. 41
— Ken Pomeroy’’s efficiency rankings place Gonzaga at No. 11; Saint Mary’s at 31 and Santa Clara at 38
— WAB (the NCAA’s Wins Above the Bubble gauge, which measures resume strength against a bubble team's expected performance) has Gonzaga at 16, Saint Mary’s at 37 and Santa Clara at 39
— The Bart Torvik rankings (which use advance metrics to measure the chances of beating average DI team) puts Gonzaga at No. 16, Saint Mary’s at 34 and Santa Clara at 35
Among the three top West Coast Conference teams, Gonzaga is the most sure-fire bet to reach the NCAAs once more. “They’re in fine shape,” Lunardi said. “I’m not sure Gonzaga is national championship good, but they certainly should get back on the Sweet 16 path again. They’re second-weekend good, and they’re all 50-50 games at that point.
“Could they make a Final Four? Yes. I thought before the season that maybe their guard play wasn’t quite at the level that it has been when they’ve had real deep runs, so we’ll see.”
There is little to separate Santa Clara and Saint Mary’s at this point. The Broncos beat the Gaels 62-54 at the Leavey Center last month, but Lunardi gives Saint Mary’s a slight edge because of its overall resume. He suggested the rematch in Moraga on the final Wednesday of the regular season could become the most important game of the conference schedule.
“For better or worse, Saint Mary’s has owned them, even when Santa Clara’s been good enough,” Lunardi said, referring to the fact that the Gaels had won 29 of the previous 33 meetings. “For (Santa Clara) to break through and win that game this year I thought was significant for Santa Clara and for the league.”
The Broncos have assembled their fifth consecutive 20-win season, unprecedented in program history. They are off to their best start since the 1969-70 season, when they also started 22-5 on the way to a third straight NCAA Tournament appearance. Their 13 conference victories tied the program record.
Santa Clara is 13-0 at home and has won nine consecutive games — its longest win streak since 1994-95 — by an average of 16.0 points.
No one is happier about their performance than Marlon Garnett, a junior and the backcourt mate of Broncos legend Steve Nash on the 1996 team that made the program’s most recent trip to the NCAA Tournament.
Garnett played 14 seasons of international basketball and served as an assistant coach in the NBA for nine seasons, currently coach a professional team in Puerto Rico. Now 50, he maintains a text thread with many of his former Santa Clara teammates, and the topic these days is the success their alma mater is enjoying.
“It’s been an impressive run this year. It’s really refreshing to see,” said Garnett, who was voted conference Player of the Year as a senior in 1997. “Quite honestly, they’ve done a pretty good job the last few years. They’re basically on the brink of an historic season.”
Lunardi has been impressed by what Sendek has assembled at Santa Clara, and especially this team.
“I’m not sure this is the most talent he’s had — I mean, he’s had NBA players,” Lunardi said, referring to recent ex-Broncos Jalen Williams and Brandin Podziesmki. “But for some reason, they seem to be greater than the sum of the parts.”
These Broncos, led by Christian Hammond, Elijah Mahi and Allen Graves, are not short on talent, Sendek said. He also praised their ability to consistently give great effort, to play together and to maintain a great attitude. “They have a good set of intangibles.”
The Broncos will try to use all of that against a Gonzaga team determined to take back the West Coast Conference regular-season title won the past two seasons by Saint Mary’s. The Zags are still without injured starting forward Braden Huff, but 6-foot-9 senior Graham Ike has taken up the slack, averaging 27.7 points over the past six games.
The Broncos are certainly familiar with Ike, who scored 34 points in their first meeting. “If anything, he’s taken it to a whole other stratosphere,” Sendek said. “He’s got to be playing as well as most anyone in college basketball right now.”
Ike and the Zags are the sole focus of the Broncos heading into Saturday night. What it all means and where things go next, Sendek pushes that aside for another day.
“Really, we just have to let the season play out,” he said. “There’s still so much basketball left to play.”
And it’s gonna be fun.